- U.S. stocks finished a volatile week mixed, with the Nasdaq edging higher while the S&P 500 was flat and the Dow fell on weakness in cyclicals and Intel.
- Intel beat Q4 expectations but issued soft Q1 guidance due to supply constraints, sending shares down sharply.
- Nvidia stayed in focus as CEO Jensen Huang prepared to visit China amid shifting U.S. chip-export restrictions that are weighing on China-related sales.
- Economic signals were cautious, with consumer sentiment improving slightly but still depressed and PMI data showing modest expansion that missed forecasts.
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The week ending Jan. 23, 2026 concluded with markets absorbing a mix of positive and negative developments, resulting in divergence across major indices. While Nasdaq benefited from easing geopolitical risk and strength among major tech names, the Dow and S&P 500 lagged, pressured by weak performances in financials, industrials, and notably, Intel’s guidance miss. Intel’s Q4 beat on trailing metrics failed to reassure investors facing a soft outlook for Q1 driven by supply constraints—this disconnect raises risk of multiple-quarters of impaired sentiment if demand remains sluggish for client/PC segments.
Nvidia remains at the center of U.S.-China semiconductor policy. CEO Huang’s anticipated visit to China coincides with continuing export regulatory flux, especially around the H200/H20 chips, which have seen delayed or blocked shipments. These disruptions, including inventory write-offs and revenue losses, suggest that policy stability (or lack thereof) is now a crucial input into valuation and supply chain planning in tech hardware. For Nvidia, navigating both U.S. export controls and Beijing’s domestic pressure creates near-term headwinds even if demand remains robust.
Consumer confidence showed modest improvement in early 2026, and inflation expectations eased, but readings remain well below year-ago. Meanwhile, PMI data illustrate expansion but at slower pace and missing forecasts. Thus, economic momentum appears fragile entering Q1. For sensitive sectors—tech hardware, financials, discretionary—this implies that forward guidance, inventory cycles, and trade policy shock absorbers will be key differentiators.
Strategic implications: investors should favor firms with resilient exposure to data center/AI demand (e.g., Nvidia), cautious about companies tied to client/PC markets with constrained supply and weak consumer demand (e.g., Intel). Policy risk should be actively managed—export controls, geopolitical tensions can flip from tailwinds to critical threats. Open questions include whether China policy will relax or tighten, how margin pressure plays out for Intel and others, and whether consumer spending will rebound or drag through 2026.
Supporting Notes
- Intel reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings of $0.15/share on $13.67B revenue, beating consensus estimates; revenue was down ~4% year-over-year.
- Q1 2026 guidance from Intel: expected EPS breakeven and revenue between $11.7B and $12.7B—both softer than analyst estimates.
- Intel’s shares dropped between 13% and 17% on Jan. 23, 2026 following the outlook miss.
- Nvidia’s H20 chip sales into China were blocked by customs, causing production stalls; earlier, an estimated $2.5B in revenue was lost following export control changes and inventory write-offs.
- University of Michigan survey: January sentiment index at 56.4, up from December; inflation expectations one-year ahead fell to ~4.0%, five-year ahead rose to ~3.3%.
- S&P Global PMI: Manufacturing reading at ~51.9 (slightly above contraction line but below forecast), Services ~52.5 (flat MoM but below estimates); forecasted GDP growth ~1.5% for Dec & Jan.
- Dow Jones Transportation Average set all-time highs, which traditionally confirms breadth when coupled with industrials setting highs, per Dow Theory.
- Nvidia CEO Huang planning imminent trip to China.